Predict the outcome of a single event Investigate the theoretical and experimental probability of a simple (single) event Represent likelihood of events on a probability scale Design and implement a game based on probability theory
Conceptual Framework
communication, representation, justification in the context of Identities and Relationships
Statements of Inquiry
Representing and simplifying relationships influences our decision making processes
Factual
How do we calculate the possible outcome of an event?
Conceptual
How does knowing a possible outcome help us justify decisions?
Debatable
Are all events in the universe determined by probability?
Description
Students begin the unit by discussing the likelihood of events and representing them on a probability scale. Then students play simple probability games with dice, spinners and coins to investigate the chance of a specific event or outcome happening. After that students familiarise themselves with the unit vocabulary by using them in descriptions and communication. Students then learn how to calculate simple probability of single events using prior knowledge of fractions or decimals. They design simple probability games and justify their expected outcomes using the theoretical probability that they have calculated prior. Students will reflect on the relationship between the theoretical and the experimental probabilities.
Learning Outcomes
Understand the language and terminology associated with the study of probability - random experiment, outcome, sample space, event, relative frequency, probability, and expected value
Develop an understanding of the probability of single events
Investigate and understand the difference between experimental and theoretical probability
Calculate the probability of a single event as a fraction, decimal or percentage
Understand the concept of a fair game and manipulate payouts to ensure that a game is fair